Sometimes the NFL goes out there and shows you just how much you do not know. Whether it is the old adage “Never return a punt from within your own 10 yard line” or Brady never loses two in a row or even the Eagles have finally turned the corner, we never really know as much about the NFL as we think we do; and Week 9 sure showed us that.
So going into Week 10 the only way to make picks is to go with what we know for sure…
(Home team in caps)
SAN DEIGO -7 over Oakland
I know the Chargers played their best game of the season last week against the undefeated Packers and maybe they finally turned the corner. I also know Carson Palmer has struggled since coming back and the short week will not help him. The Chargers should win this handily.
New Orleans PK over ATLANTA
I know the Falcons have been playing better of late, and I know the Saints have been wildly inconsistent the past month, but this is no time for a let down game for the Saints. Drew Brees threw for over 300 yards in both games against Atlanta last season and should experience much of the same success this week. Expect a lot of points, and in a shootout I’ll take the Saints.
Pittsburgh -3 over CINCINNATI
I know the Bengals get no respect, and I know the Steelers will come out angry. If the Bengals win here they will be in first place in the AFC. I want to give them respect, but I need to see it against the game’s elite before I can take the Bengals in a big game.
St. Louis +3 over CLEVELAND
I know no one will be watching this game. I also know that the Browns give up the third most rushing yards per game to the tune of 144 yards. Expect Steven Jackson to get the ball early and often to help the Rams win here.
Buffalo +5.5 over DALLAS
I know the Dallas Cowboys have struggled against the run the past two weeks giving up 239 and 162 yards respectively. I also know the Bills are 3-0 against the spread as underdogs and the Cowboys are 1-3 against the spread as home favorites. The Bills may not win, but they will keep it close.
Jacksonville -3 over INDIANAPOLIS
I know the Colts have shown no heart the last month losing every game by more than double digits. The Jaguars may not be good, but it barley takes consciousness to beat the Colts.
Denver +3 over KANSAS CITY
I know both teams have been like night and day the past two weeks, but as hard as it is to watch Tebow play, it is even harder to pick against him. It is hard to pick a team who got routed by a winless Dolphins team at home, so I guess I am going with Tebow.
MIAMI -3.5 over Washington
I know the Dolphins are not as good as they looked in a 31-3 beat down of Kansas City, but I also know the Redskins are as bad as they have looked the last month. With no quarterback to attack the very weak Dolphins secondary it looks like the Skins will have a tough time moving the ball again. Look for the Dolphins to win, but it will not be pretty.
Arizona +14 over PHILADELPHIA
I know the Eagles have all the talent in the world, but I also know they cannot hold a lead to save their season (as evident by losing a late lead in 4 of 5 loses). The Eagles should win, but the final score will be a lot closer than you might think.
Houston -3 over TAMPA BAY
I know the Texans can run, and I know the Bucs cannot stop anyone. Though the Texans 6-3 record may be a product of an easy schedule, they have looked very good the past 3 weeks with a completely healthy Arian Foster and the potential return of Andre Johnson could mean big things for an already rolling offense.
CAROLINA -3 over Tennessee
I know Chris Johnson has been awful, and there is no way he will expose the very poor Carolina run defense. Cam has been the King of the Cover this year, as the Panthers have been 5-2 against the spread and 4-1 at home. Expect Cam to shine again. Even though this game has little playoff implications, it is always fun to watch Cam, because you never know what he will do.
SEATTLE +7 over Baltimore
I know the Ravens are coming off of a huge emotional win, and I know that the Seahawks are not very good. But the Seahawks have a real home field advantage, and call me crazy, but this is a classic let down game for the Ravens. Don’t be surprised if they come out flat and do not wake up until it is too late to cover.
Detroit +3 over CHICAGO
I know the Bears looked very resilient in their come from behind win over the Eagles (I also know I am still a little bitter about the Eagles loss), but I just do not think the Bears are good. The Lions beat them up the last time the played and they are 2-0 against the spread as road underdogs this season, call me bitter, but I’m taking the Lions.
SAN FRANSISCO -3.5 over New York Giants
I know no one had this as the biggest NFC game of the season to date. The 49ers have a great run defense and a bad pass defense, so this game will come down to Eli Manning. I know he has looked good, and I know all the talk about not being able to spell Elite without Eli, but eventually this magic dust has to stop right? Some day soon Eli will remember he is not Peyton, and I think that day will come Sunday.
New England +2 over NEW YORK JETS
I know the Patriots cannot keep losing, I mean they are the Patriots. The Patriots beat them handily the first time these two got together and Green-Ellis ran wild. Thought I do not expect the Patriots to have the same success on the ground, I do see them pulling this one out and getting back on track.
GREEN BAY -13 over Minnesota
I know the Packers are the best team in the league, and even though Adrian Peterson and the Vikings will try to keep the ball away from Rodgers, they will be losing by too much to stick with the running game. Expect the Packers to play hard throughout and bury the rival Vikings.
All that being said, what do we really know anymore anyway?
Good luck with your picks in Week 10
Last Week: 6-8